Retail sales to show Jubilee effect
Official figures released on Thursday will reveal whether or not the Queen's Diamond Jubilee celebrations gave retailers a royal boost.Retail sales volumes in June are forecast to increase by between 0.5% and 0.9%, depending on how far the four-day event was able to offset the impact of record rainfall.
Initial surveys from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and CBI suggest the occasion, which included an additional bank holiday, had a positive impact on retail sales.
A robust increase will provide hope that the economy may have emerged from its double-dip recession in the second quarter ahead of official growth (GDP) figures next week.
The economy entered a technical recession in the first quarter of the year, with gross domestic product declining 0.2%, following a 0.3% drop in the final quarter of 2011.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, expects retail sales volumes growth of 0.5% month-on-month in June, compared with 1.4% in May.
He said: "The Queen's Diamond Jubilee celebrations led to consumers buying food and drink for street parties and other events, purchasing souvenirs, and also taking advantage of the extra day's public holiday to go to the shops."
Inflation slowed to 2.4% in June as retailers brought forward summer sales, easing conditions for cash-strapped families. Like-for-like sales rose 1.4% over the month, the BRC said, after the Jubilee sparked the strongest week for grocery sales since Easter.
However, the trade association warned that conditions worsened towards the end of the month as the torrential rainfall dampened demand.
Earlier in the month, the CBI said a balance of 42% of retailers reported sales volumes up on a year ago in the first two weeks of June, the highest reading since December 2010. While lower inflation has helped consumer spending, analysts warned the high level of unemployment and slow wages growth will weigh on retailers' performance.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, expects retail sales volumes growth of 0.5% month-on-month in June, compared with 1.4% in May.
He said: "The Queen's Diamond Jubilee celebrations led to consumers buying food and drink for street parties and other events, purchasing souvenirs, and also taking advantage of the extra day's public holiday to go to the shops."
Inflation slowed to 2.4% in June as retailers brought forward summer sales, easing conditions for cash-strapped families. Like-for-like sales rose 1.4% over the month, the BRC said, after the Jubilee sparked the strongest week for grocery sales since Easter.
However, the trade association warned that conditions worsened towards the end of the month as the torrential rainfall dampened demand.
Earlier in the month, the CBI said a balance of 42% of retailers reported sales volumes up on a year ago in the first two weeks of June, the highest reading since December 2010. While lower inflation has helped consumer spending, analysts warned the high level of unemployment and slow wages growth will weigh on retailers' performance.
© 2013 Press Association